Arkansas State at TCU -- NCAA Week 3, September 20, 2026.
Model prediction: TCU favored by 11.0, projected total 48.6 points, 73.6% win probability for TCU.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -11.3, 25th percentile: -0.6, 50th percentile: +11.1, 75th percentile: +23.0, 90th percentile: +33.3. Total points 10th percentile: 26.7, 25th percentile: 37.1, 50th percentile: 48.6, 75th percentile: 59.9, 90th percentile: 69.9.
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