Michigan State at Notre Dame -- NCAA Week 3, September 19, 2026.
Model prediction: Notre Dame favored by 28.3, projected total 57.3 points, 93.4% win probability for Notre Dame.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: +5.6, 25th percentile: +16.2, 50th percentile: +28.2, 75th percentile: +40.2, 90th percentile: +50.7. Total points 10th percentile: 36.1, 25th percentile: 46.1, 50th percentile: 57.7, 75th percentile: 68.6, 90th percentile: 78.6.
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