Marshall at Missouri State -- NCAA Week 3, September 19, 2026.
Model prediction: Missouri State favored by 0.7, projected total 69.1 points, 51.7% win probability for Missouri State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -21.9, 25th percentile: -11.2, 50th percentile: +0.7, 75th percentile: +12.3, 90th percentile: +22.9. Total points 10th percentile: 47.1, 25th percentile: 57.8, 50th percentile: 69.1, 75th percentile: 80.3, 90th percentile: 90.7.
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