Ball State at Liberty -- NCAA Week 3, September 19, 2026.
Model prediction: Liberty favored by 12.9, projected total 47.9 points, 77.0% win probability for Liberty.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -9.1, 25th percentile: +1.2, 50th percentile: +12.9, 75th percentile: +24.6, 90th percentile: +34.9. Total points 10th percentile: 26.6, 25th percentile: 36.7, 50th percentile: 48.0, 75th percentile: 59.3, 90th percentile: 69.1.
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