Florida State at Alabama -- NCAA Week 3, September 19, 2026.
Model prediction: Alabama favored by 18.6, projected total 40.4 points, 85.0% win probability for Alabama.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Market spread: Alabama -15.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -3.9, 25th percentile: +6.8, 50th percentile: +18.6, 75th percentile: +30.1, 90th percentile: +40.2. Total points 10th percentile: 19.0, 25th percentile: 28.9, 50th percentile: 40.4, 75th percentile: 51.8, 90th percentile: 62.4.
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