SMU at Louisville -- NCAA Week 3, September 19, 2026.
Model prediction: Louisville favored by 1.9, projected total 43.2 points, 54.4% win probability for Louisville.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Louisville -1.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -20.4, 25th percentile: -9.5, 50th percentile: +2.1, 75th percentile: +13.7, 90th percentile: +24.3. Total points 10th percentile: 22.1, 25th percentile: 31.8, 50th percentile: 43.4, 75th percentile: 54.5, 90th percentile: 64.7.
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