Buffalo at Penn State -- NCAA Week 3, September 19, 2026.
Model prediction: Penn State favored by 20.9, projected total 45.3 points, 87.6% win probability for Penn State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -1.3, 25th percentile: +8.7, 50th percentile: +20.9, 75th percentile: +32.6, 90th percentile: +42.8. Total points 10th percentile: 24.0, 25th percentile: 34.2, 50th percentile: 45.4, 75th percentile: 56.6, 90th percentile: 66.6.
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