Bowling Green at Iowa State -- NCAA Week 3, September 19, 2026.
Model prediction: Iowa State favored by 18.4, projected total 42.4 points, 84.8% win probability for Iowa State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -3.6, 25th percentile: +6.7, 50th percentile: +18.2, 75th percentile: +29.9, 90th percentile: +40.2. Total points 10th percentile: 20.5, 25th percentile: 30.6, 50th percentile: 42.2, 75th percentile: 53.6, 90th percentile: 63.7.
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