Ohio State at Texas -- NCAA Week 2, September 12, 2026.
Model prediction: Texas favored by 1.0, projected total 43.3 points, 52.4% win probability for Texas.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Market spread: Texas -1.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -21.3, 25th percentile: -10.8, 50th percentile: +0.7, 75th percentile: +12.4, 90th percentile: +23.3. Total points 10th percentile: 22.0, 25th percentile: 31.9, 50th percentile: 43.2, 75th percentile: 54.2, 90th percentile: 64.5.
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