Iowa State at Iowa -- NCAA Week 2, September 12, 2026.
Model prediction: Iowa favored by 11.3, projected total 42.3 points, 74.2% win probability for Iowa.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Market spread: Iowa -13.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -11.0, 25th percentile: -0.5, 50th percentile: +11.1, 75th percentile: +23.0, 90th percentile: +33.6. Total points 10th percentile: 20.7, 25th percentile: 30.9, 50th percentile: 42.6, 75th percentile: 53.6, 90th percentile: 63.6.
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