UTSA at Texas State -- NCAA Week 2, September 12, 2026.
Model prediction: Texas State favored by 4.3, projected total 87.0 points, 59.9% win probability for Texas State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -17.7, 25th percentile: -7.4, 50th percentile: +4.2, 75th percentile: +15.9, 90th percentile: +26.7. Total points 10th percentile: 65.8, 25th percentile: 75.9, 50th percentile: 87.1, 75th percentile: 98.5, 90th percentile: 108.4.
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