SMU at Florida State -- NCAA Week 1, September 7, 2026.
Model prediction: SMU favored by 8.7, projected total 43.1 points, 30.7% win probability for Florida State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Market spread: Florida State +3.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -30.8, 25th percentile: -20.4, 50th percentile: -8.6, 75th percentile: +3.0, 90th percentile: +13.7. Total points 10th percentile: 21.6, 25th percentile: 31.7, 50th percentile: 43.1, 75th percentile: 54.6, 90th percentile: 65.1.
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