UL Monroe at Mississippi State -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Mississippi State favored by 12.4, projected total 52.7 points, 76.1% win probability for Mississippi State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Mississippi State -28.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -9.5, 25th percentile: +0.9, 50th percentile: +12.6, 75th percentile: +24.0, 90th percentile: +34.2. Total points 10th percentile: 31.7, 25th percentile: 41.6, 50th percentile: 52.9, 75th percentile: 64.5, 90th percentile: 74.4.
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