Sam Houston at Troy -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Troy favored by 17.9, projected total 44.2 points, 84.2% win probability for Troy.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Troy -16.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -4.5, 25th percentile: +6.5, 50th percentile: +17.9, 75th percentile: +29.6, 90th percentile: +40.2. Total points 10th percentile: 22.7, 25th percentile: 33.0, 50th percentile: 44.0, 75th percentile: 55.3, 90th percentile: 65.8.
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