Arkansas State at Memphis -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Memphis favored by 5.5, projected total 53.7 points, 62.5% win probability for Memphis.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Memphis -9.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -16.8, 25th percentile: -6.1, 50th percentile: +5.5, 75th percentile: +17.2, 90th percentile: +27.8. Total points 10th percentile: 32.3, 25th percentile: 42.3, 50th percentile: 53.8, 75th percentile: 64.9, 90th percentile: 75.0.
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