Oklahoma State at Tulsa -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Tulsa favored by 5.7, projected total 45.1 points, 62.9% win probability for Tulsa.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Tulsa +14.0.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -16.7, 25th percentile: -6.0, 50th percentile: +5.7, 75th percentile: +17.2, 90th percentile: +27.6. Total points 10th percentile: 23.9, 25th percentile: 33.8, 50th percentile: 45.1, 75th percentile: 56.5, 90th percentile: 67.1.
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