Texas State at Texas -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Texas favored by 16.1, projected total 72.9 points, 81.8% win probability for Texas.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Texas -30.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -6.0, 25th percentile: +4.4, 50th percentile: +16.1, 75th percentile: +27.8, 90th percentile: +38.3. Total points 10th percentile: 51.3, 25th percentile: 61.6, 50th percentile: 73.0, 75th percentile: 84.5, 90th percentile: 94.6.
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