Tulane at Duke -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Duke favored by 5.1, projected total 66.8 points, 61.6% win probability for Duke.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Duke -9.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -17.1, 25th percentile: -6.7, 50th percentile: +5.4, 75th percentile: +16.8, 90th percentile: +27.6. Total points 10th percentile: 45.6, 25th percentile: 55.6, 50th percentile: 66.8, 75th percentile: 78.1, 90th percentile: 88.7.
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