Boise State at Oregon -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Oregon favored by 17.9, projected total 48.7 points, 84.2% win probability for Oregon.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Oregon -24.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -4.8, 25th percentile: +5.8, 50th percentile: +17.8, 75th percentile: +29.4, 90th percentile: +39.9. Total points 10th percentile: 27.0, 25th percentile: 37.0, 50th percentile: 48.5, 75th percentile: 59.9, 90th percentile: 69.9.
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