Marshall at Penn State -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Penn State favored by 15.5, projected total 60.8 points, 81.0% win probability for Penn State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Penn State -24.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -6.6, 25th percentile: +4.2, 50th percentile: +15.5, 75th percentile: +26.9, 90th percentile: +37.6. Total points 10th percentile: 39.1, 25th percentile: 49.4, 50th percentile: 60.6, 75th percentile: 72.5, 90th percentile: 82.5.
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