Ball State at Ohio State -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Ohio State favored by 36.2, projected total 40.0 points, 96.7% win probability for Ohio State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Market spread: Ohio State -50.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: +14.1, 25th percentile: +24.8, 50th percentile: +36.6, 75th percentile: +48.0, 90th percentile: +58.6. Total points 10th percentile: 18.4, 25th percentile: 28.8, 50th percentile: 39.8, 75th percentile: 51.4, 90th percentile: 61.3.
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