East Carolina at Alabama -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Alabama favored by 11.1, projected total 50.7 points, 73.9% win probability for Alabama.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Market spread: Alabama -28.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -11.7, 25th percentile: -0.6, 50th percentile: +11.2, 75th percentile: +22.6, 90th percentile: +32.9. Total points 10th percentile: 29.6, 25th percentile: 39.5, 50th percentile: 50.8, 75th percentile: 61.7, 90th percentile: 72.0.
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