Fresno State at USC -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: USC favored by 11.9, projected total 40.3 points, 75.3% win probability for USC.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: USC -22.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -10.6, 25th percentile: -0.1, 50th percentile: +11.4, 75th percentile: +23.7, 90th percentile: +34.1. Total points 10th percentile: 18.4, 25th percentile: 28.5, 50th percentile: 40.1, 75th percentile: 51.7, 90th percentile: 62.2.
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