Toledo at Michigan State -- NCAA Week 1, September 5, 2026.
Model prediction: Toledo favored by 5.7, projected total 42.9 points, 37.0% win probability for Michigan State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC.
Market spread: Michigan State -10.0.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -27.3, 25th percentile: -17.1, 50th percentile: -5.5, 75th percentile: +6.0, 90th percentile: +16.2. Total points 10th percentile: 21.7, 25th percentile: 31.4, 50th percentile: 42.5, 75th percentile: 53.8, 90th percentile: 64.8.
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