UAB at Illinois -- NCAA Week 1, September 4, 2026.
Model prediction: Illinois favored by 18.6, projected total 56.9 points, 85.1% win probability for Illinois.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Market spread: Illinois -28.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -3.5, 25th percentile: +7.0, 50th percentile: +18.9, 75th percentile: +30.2, 90th percentile: +40.6. Total points 10th percentile: 35.5, 25th percentile: 45.6, 50th percentile: 57.0, 75th percentile: 68.4, 90th percentile: 78.7.
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